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Bitcoin has Dropped 52% since Jan 14 2022

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On November 9th, 2021, Bitcoin BTC was valued at ~67k. I waited and bought in on January 14th at 43k. BTC. Like many others, I continued to buy in “on the dip” with an overall moderate investment. Months later I am in disbelief at the deep devaluation of cryptocurrencies across the board, specifically BTC, which I thought would be the best crypto to steer clear against significant loss of value.

In Bear Markets, Investors Shift from Equities to other Asset Types. Why not Crypto?

Commodities, Oil, Precious Metals, and the like are typically the safe haven when there is an equities bear market in effect. It appears Cryptocurrencies as an “asset class” don’t share that same safe haven status. Why not?

Crypto not Sustained by Global Black and Grey Market Transactions?

Lots of illegal and grey area transactions in the world where anonymity should bolster the market evaluation of Cryptocurrencies, but that’s not what we see here. Clients may be shifting/leveraging more traditional ways in finance/trade which have low tech solutions, and countries/territories with loose banking regulations. It may even be beneficial to induce a cryptocurrency crash to reinvigorate the traditional approach that institutions and individuals that broker these opaque transactions.

Are we in a cryptocurrency bubble, bursting in progress?

The housing market will continue to go up. Why not cash in on a variable rate with a loan of over 90% of the house asset. Sound familiar?

Cash is King: “On Demand” Cryptocurrency Transactions

In the new world of Cryptocurrencies, leverage a “Just in Time” crypto transaction going from cash to crypto and back to another currency held in ringfenced countries with loose regulations. Holding long term assets that are affixed to cryptocurrency, such as NFTs, should be a relic of the NFT evolution. Assets, digital and physical, should appreciate over time without the impediment of a highly volatile, underlying currency.

Volume and Volatility

Significant volume trading drives price speculation upward or downward. Electronic trading tied to financial models for trading execution could make the underlying asset wildly volatile, especially with a relatively new asset class, such as cryptocurrency. Conflicting financial models could appear to be as a Tug of war maintaining both maximizing asset value and liquidity.

Influential Events – Impact on Markets

Sometimes there could be a direct correlation between an event, such as a drop in the temperature, which impacts the price of buying gas (i.e. heating) commodity. Sometimes events, such as the drop in cryptocurrency, are not readily transparent on the open markets, and have assets wildly traded based on spec. As romantic as it sounds, we need not look at the “butterfly effect” to grasp the windfall of the BTC current value.

Invasion of Ukraine by Russia

It’s very possible that countries, and their ultra wealthy citizens could have significantly “bought in” on cryptocurrencies, especially at the height of the valuations last year, and now with a war in their backyard feel more comfortable with traditional, safe haven, assets, and are backing out of their positions. If trades are unwound to fast, it could drive the price of the asset.

Bolster National Economies of South America

Some countries have sought to adopt cryptocurrencies in lieu of their native currency in order to prevent against sky high inflation. If one country, such as Russia, and their Russian oligarchs decide to pull out “liquidate” vast volumes of cryptocurrency driving the price down, there will be significant impact to nations who have adopted the cryptocurrency in lieu of their own. Devaluation of the asset verses unmanageable, high inflation.

Price of Crude Oil, and Gas at all Time High

Crude Oil has been on the rise since April 2020 from ~ 16 USD to the 52 week high of ~130 USD. Has supply and demand had a major impact to oil prices, shifting from crypto? Is/was the pandemic a driver? Less travel, weakening demand. Tightening supply from Russian sanctions on Oil And Gas shifting spending from crypto to oil?

Price of Goods and Services increases by significant Inflation

Saying the value of goods and services are effected by the events around us is a fair assessment. Looking at the most basic of consumer flows, farm to plate, butter and milk have seen prices risen. Less money available for investments due to a rise in nondiscretionary spending?

Shoppers across America are noticing inflation in prices on many everyday items, and milk got its moment in the spotlight after a CNN interview with one family went viral. It’s true: retail prices for a gallon of milk are up 26% at an average of $3.59 since bottoming out at $2.84 in July 2018.

OC Register

Derivatives – Currency Swaps to Hedge Crypto Risk?

There have to be financial instruments available, or can be packaged to balance the adverse effects of a very volatile cryptocurrency. How accessible are these financial products to the “common” investor, is beyond my speculation, but these are stop gap efforts, and will not resolve the underlying problem with cryptocurrencies.

Artificial Inflation, Pumping in additional BTC by Mining Crypto

I’m not saying this is a “thing” based on other posts and popular opinion, but it could be a factor, at least as an artificial reason / sentiment to flee crypto.

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